Forward-Looking Watchlist
Horizon Risk Countries
The Lab monitors twelve countries where major resource discoveries coincide with institutional weakness — the conditions for the presource curse. Six are featured with detailed analysis; six more on the broader watchlist.
The Concept
A horizon risk country is one where major resource discoveries have been announced but production has not yet begun — or has only recently started. This is the presource window: the period when anticipated wealth reshapes fiscal behaviour, governance incentives, and growth expectations before revenues materialise.
The Lab identifies these countries using a structured criteria framework, then tracks their trajectories against IMF vintage forecasts to measure whether the expectations gap is widening.
Selection Criteria
Major Discovery
Giant petroleum field or major mineral deposit announced.
Institutional Weakness
Governance indicators below regional median.
Forecast Optimism
IMF/WB projections incorporating unrealised resource revenues.
Fiscal Expansion
Evidence of borrowing or spending against anticipated wealth.
Presource Window
Currently between discovery and first production.
Countries must meet both required criteria plus at least one of criteria 3-5. Sources: Lab giant discovery database, IMF WEO vintage database, World Bank WGI.
Horizon Risk Explorer
Total real GDP trajectories vs. IMF WEO vintage forecasts for countries at risk of the presource curse. Both series use a single WEO source. Select a country or view grouped overviews.
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook actuals and vintage forecasts (37 editions, Oct 2007 – Oct 2025). Navy line = actual total real GDP (indexed to discovery year = 100). Amber dashed = WEO forecast from discovery year. Shaded region = expectations gap. Both series use a single WEO source to eliminate cross-source measurement noise.
Featured Countries
Detailed analysis
Guinea
Simandou Iron Ore
$15bn Simandou iron ore project under a military junta, with optimistic IMF growth forecasts and no track record of managing resource wealth at this scale. Perhaps the single strongest presource curse candidate globally.
Cote d'Ivoire
Offshore Oil Transformation
Baleine and Calao discoveries transform CIV from marginal to potentially major oil producer. Government targeting 200,000 bpd by 2030 with fiscal plans already recalibrating around anticipated wealth.
Suriname
Offshore Oil (GranMorgu)
$10.5bn GranMorgu project while already in IMF programme after severe debt crisis. Government restructuring debt on the basis of anticipated oil revenues that remain years away.
Uganda
Lake Albert Oil
Twenty years from discovery with no production, governance deterioration, rising debt, and the controversial EACOP pipeline. One of the most compelling presource curse cases globally.
Malawi
Critical Minerals Portfolio
Not a single discovery but a portfolio of critical mineral investments generating presource dynamics on an already debt-distressed balance sheet. WEO forecasts consistently above actuals for a decade.
DRC
Critical Minerals Portfolio
World's dominant cobalt producer (~70% of global supply) with accelerating critical minerals FDI driven by energy transition demand. Revenue governance among the worst globally despite transformative resource wealth.
Monitored Countries
Broader watchlist
Mauritania
GTA Gas
GTA Phase 1 producing since December 2024. Under IMF programme with fiscal guardrails. Lower risk than peers but Phase 2 expectations could trigger a second wave of fiscal expansion.
Namibia
Orange Basin Oil
Estimated 20bn bbl offshore among the largest global finds of the decade. Relatively strong institutions but no prior oil production history. Earliest stage of our monitored countries.
Tanzania
Deep-Water Gas
Deep-water gas discoveries totalling ~57 tcf with FID potentially 2025-26. Over a decade in the presource window with no firm FID. The Mozambique parallel.
Sierra Leone
Mining Boom-Bust
A cautionary tale of the presource boom-bust cycle. The iron ore investment surge of 2011-14 generated classic presource dynamics before collapsing when prices fell and Ebola struck simultaneously.
Papua New Guinea
Papua LNG
Second-wave presource dynamics. PNG already manages LNG revenue poorly. Papua LNG will double export capacity, generating a fresh anticipation cycle on top of existing governance failures.
Madagascar
Critical Minerals Portfolio
World's 3rd-largest graphite producer with 1,650+ pending mining licence applications. Institutional collapse and resource governance failure co-occurring after October 2025 coup.
Horizon Risk Thematic Note
Full analysis of all twelve horizon risk countries with detailed country profiles, criteria assessments, and policy implications. Available as a downloadable PDF.