Horizon Risk Explorer
Total real GDP trajectories for twelve countries at risk of the presource curse, measured against IMF WEO vintage forecasts from the discovery year.
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Horizon Risk Explorer
Total real GDP trajectories vs. IMF WEO vintage forecasts for countries at risk of the presource curse. Both series use a single WEO source. Select a country or view grouped overviews.
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook actuals and vintage forecasts (37 editions, Oct 2007 – Oct 2025). Navy line = actual total real GDP (indexed to discovery year = 100). Amber dashed = WEO forecast from discovery year. Shaded region = expectations gap. Both series use a single WEO source to eliminate cross-source measurement noise.
Featured Countries
Guinea
Cote d'Ivoire
Suriname
Uganda
Malawi
DRC
Data note: Total real GDP indexed to discovery year = 100 using IMF WEO actuals. Amber dashed line shows IMF WEO vintage forecast from discovery year (5-year ahead). Both actuals and forecasts come from a single WEO source, eliminating cross-source measurement noise. 37 WEO editions, Oct 2007 – Oct 2025.