Applied Research · Policy Advice · Development Economics
Growth is fragile.
Threats are identifiable.
The Threats to Growth Lab produces applied research, counterfactual growth paths, and actionable policy advice to help low- and middle-income countries avoid the specific, identifiable threats that derail sustained economic growth.
Flagship Visualization
The Cost of a Lost Decade
For resource-discovering economies, IMF WEO vintage forecasts embed the expectations that shaped policy in the years after discovery. Comparing those forecasts to realised total GDP makes the expectations gap concrete and quantified.
Select a country and toggle series on or off. Amber shading marks years in which the IMF WEO forecast exceeded actual total GDP; navy shading marks the reverse.
View all visualizations →Anatomy of a Lost Decade
Total GDP trajectories for resource-discovering countries — actual outcomes vs. IMF forecasts at time of discovery. Index: discovery year = 100.
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook vintage forecasts (actual growth and 1-year-ahead forecast chains). Amber shading: forecast exceeds actual (over-forecast). Navy shading: actual exceeds forecast. Both series indexed to discovery year = 100. 9 countries covering SSA hydrocarbon and copper discoveries, and Guyana.
The Framework
Seven Core Growth Threats
Presource Curse
Damage begins at discovery, years before revenues arrive.
Resource Curse
Dutch disease, institutional erosion, fiscal volatility.
Over-Borrowing & Debt Traps
Hidden debt, commodity-collateralised lending, off-budget liabilities.
Citizen Expectation Shocks
The political economy of unmet promises.
Fiscal Rigidity Traps
Structurally committed expenditure — one shock from crisis.
External Shocks & Contagion
Why some countries absorb shocks and others do not.
Growth Mis-Forecasting
Over-optimistic official projections that validate premature spending and borrowing.
Case Repository
Country Case Studies
Ghana
Oil, Optimism, and Fiscal Overreach
The 2007 Jubilee discovery triggered fiscal overexpansion before a single barrel was lifted — ending in an IMF bailout three years after production began.
Mozambique
The Hidden Debt and the Gas Mirage
$2 billion in hidden debt accumulated using anticipated gas revenues as collateral. When exposed in 2016, the IMF suspended its programme and 14 donors withdrew overnight.
Senegal
The Presource Curse in Real Time
A decade of fiscal misreporting and $7bn in hidden liabilities — culminating in an IMF suspension the same month first oil finally arrived.
Malawi
A Mining Boom on Fragile Foundations
No single discovery — but a portfolio of critical mineral investments generating classic presource dynamics on an already debt-distressed balance sheet.
Zambia
HIPC Relief, Eurobonds, and Default
Zambia received $6.5bn in HIPC debt relief in 2005 — a clean fiscal slate. Within fifteen years it had borrowed its way back to default, the first African COVID-era sovereign to miss a Eurobond payment.
Why This Matters
"The consequences are measured in lost decades. Countries like Mozambique, Zambia, and Sierra Leone have experienced growth collapses that, had they been avoided, would have left millions of people dramatically better off."
— Threats to Growth Lab Founding Document, 2026
Research Architecture
Three Research Pillars
Resource & Presource Threats
The presource curse, resource curse, and citizen expectation shocks.
IIFiscal & Debt Threats
Over-borrowing, fiscal rigidity traps, premature sovereign wealth funds, and debt sustainability.
IIIStructural & Governance Threats
Institutional erosion, aid dependence, climate vulnerability, and structural transformation failure.