Applied Research · Policy Advice · Development Economics
Growth is fragile.
Threats are identifiable.
The Threats to Growth Lab produces applied research, counterfactual growth paths, and actionable policy advice to help low- and middle-income countries avoid the specific, identifiable threats that derail sustained economic growth.
Flagship Visualization
The Cost of a Lost Decade
For every country that experienced a growth collapse, there is a plausible counterfactual — what could have been. We construct synthetic growth paths to make those lost decades concrete and quantified.
Select a country and toggle series on or off. The amber shaded region represents the estimated growth cost between the actual path and the synthetic counterfactual.
View all visualizations →Anatomy of a Lost Decade
GDP per capita trajectories for resource-discovering countries — actual outcomes vs. what could have been. Index: pre-discovery year = 100.
Note: Placeholder estimates only. Final figure will use Penn World Table 10.x data, IMF WEO vintage forecasts, and Stata-estimated synthetic controls. The amber shaded region indicates the estimated growth cost between actual and counterfactual paths.
The Framework
Six Core Growth Threats
Presource Curse
Damage begins at discovery, years before revenues arrive.
Resource Curse
Dutch disease, institutional erosion, fiscal volatility.
Over-Borrowing & Debt Traps
Hidden debt, commodity-collateralised lending, off-budget liabilities.
Citizen Expectation Shocks
The political economy of unmet promises.
Fiscal Rigidity Traps
Structurally committed expenditure — one shock from crisis.
External Shocks & Contagion
Why some countries absorb shocks and others do not.
Case Repository
Country Case Studies
Ghana
Oil, Optimism, and a Lost Decade
The 2007 Jubilee discovery triggered fiscal overexpansion before a single barrel was lifted — ending in an IMF bailout three years after production began.
Mozambique
The Hidden Debt and the Gas Mirage
$2 billion in hidden debt accumulated using anticipated gas revenues as collateral. When exposed in 2016, the IMF suspended its programme and 14 donors withdrew overnight.
Senegal
The Presource Curse in Real Time
A decade of fiscal misreporting and $7bn in hidden liabilities — culminating in an IMF suspension the same month first oil finally arrived.
Malawi
A Mining Boom on Fragile Foundations
No single discovery — but a portfolio of critical mineral investments generating classic presource dynamics on an already debt-distressed balance sheet.
Zambia
HIPC Relief, Eurobonds, and Default
Zambia received $6.5bn in HIPC debt relief in 2005 — a clean fiscal slate. Within fifteen years it had borrowed its way back to default, the first African COVID-era sovereign to miss a Eurobond payment.
Why This Matters
"The consequences are measured in lost decades. Countries like Zambia, Venezuela, and Mozambique have experienced growth collapses that, had they been avoided, would have left millions of people dramatically better off."
— Threats to Growth Lab Founding Document, 2026
Research Architecture
Three Research Pillars
Resource & Presource Threats
The presource curse, resource curse, and citizen expectation shocks — the Lab's signature focus.
IIFiscal & Debt Threats
Over-borrowing, fiscal rigidity traps, premature sovereign wealth funds, and debt sustainability.
IIIStructural & Governance Threats
Institutional erosion, aid dependence, climate vulnerability, and structural transformation failure.