Case Repository
Country Case Studies
Structured narratives documenting how specific countries encountered, responded to, and were affected by growth threats — searchable by country, threat type, and outcome.
Standard case study structure
Each case study follows a common five-section template: (1) country context, (2) nature of the threat, (3) policy response, (4) growth outcome vs. counterfactual, (5) lessons and policy implications. All cases include a bibliography and a counterfactual growth path figure.
Published
5 casesGhana
Oil, Optimism, and Fiscal Overreach
The 2007 Jubilee discovery triggered fiscal overexpansion before a single barrel was lifted — ending in an IMF bailout three years after production began.
Mozambique
The Hidden Debt and the Gas Mirage
$2 billion in hidden debt accumulated using anticipated gas revenues as collateral. When exposed in 2016, the IMF suspended its programme and 14 donors withdrew simultaneously.
Senegal
The Presource Curse in Real Time
A decade of fiscal misreporting and $7bn in hidden liabilities — culminating in an IMF suspension the same month first oil finally arrived.
Malawi
A Mining Boom on Fragile Foundations
No single discovery — but a portfolio of critical mineral investments generating classic presource dynamics on an already debt-distressed balance sheet.
Zambia
HIPC Relief, Eurobonds, and Default
Zambia received $6.5bn in HIPC debt relief in 2005 — a clean fiscal slate. Within fifteen years it had borrowed its way back to default, the first African COVID-era sovereign to miss a Eurobond payment.