Anatomy of a Lost Decade
Compare actual total GDP against IMF WEO vintage forecasts for resource-discovering countries. Hover for values; toggle series on and off.
Anatomy of a Lost Decade
Total GDP trajectories for resource-discovering countries — actual outcomes vs. IMF forecasts at time of discovery. Index: discovery year = 100.
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook vintage forecasts (actual growth and 1-year-ahead forecast chains). Amber shading: forecast exceeds actual (over-forecast). Navy shading: actual exceeds forecast. Both series indexed to discovery year = 100. 9 countries covering SSA hydrocarbon and copper discoveries, and Guyana.
Data note: Total real GDP indexed to discovery year = 100 using IMF WEO actual growth rates (same source as forecasts). WEO forecast chains use IMF vintage 1-year-ahead forecasts cumulated from discovery year. Both series share a common unit and source, eliminating cross-source measurement inconsistencies. 9 countries covering SSA hydrocarbon and copper discoveries, and Guyana. All data and replication code will be open-sourced.
What this shows
At the moment of a giant resource discovery, the IMF revises its growth forecast upward. This chart compares that forecast trajectory (amber dashed line) with what actually happened (navy solid line). Where the forecast exceeded reality — the amber shaded region — is the expectations gap: growth that was anticipated but never materialised. Both series use IMF WEO data, ensuring a like-for-like comparison.
Why it matters
Governments, creditors, and citizens all make decisions based on these forecasts. When the forecasts prove systematically optimistic, the fiscal plans, borrowing decisions, and political commitments built on them become unsustainable. This is the mechanism of the presource curse.